As part of the development of transport scenarios for the 4th generation of the projet d’agglomération (PA4) of the Grand Genève metropolitan area, Egis operate the MMT (Modèle multimodal transfrontalier) which provides detailed modelling of mobility dynamics in the metropolitan area for the 2030 and 2040 horizons, according to different scenarios. In this approach, Egis has requested the support of 6t in to model the various resident population groups, according to their mobility equipment as well as their activity status, on the basis of global demographic projections already established.
To do this, 6t uses a two-step approach. Firstly, a review of the scientific literature enables us to identify the socio-territorial variables that explain the mobility equipment of people. Secondly, a predictive statistical method is developed in which the segmentation of the population groups in 2030 and 2040 is approached on the basis of the previously identified variables. The model is developed with reference to the current situation, then applied to both time horizons and for each of the scenarios.
In addition, Egis has also requested 6t for the calculation of the so-called “MOCA” indicators, which are used by the Confederation to monitor and control the effects of the projets d’agglomération. These indicators include modal share indices as well as population and jobs distribution indices based on the quality of public transport services in the area. To this end, a spatial modelling of the future population distribution in 2030 and 2040 is carried out by 6t. In addition, on the basis of the projected transport offer, a public transport service quality index is calculated for the different scenarios. Using both the 6t work as well as the MMT modelling results, it is possible to establish the MOCA indicators for the different time horizons and for each of the scenarios.
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